OPEC has expected global oil demand growth to improve seasonally, from the sluggish performance seen in H1-2019, with growth in H2-2019 forecast at 1.2 million barrels/day y-o-y.
"The OECD region is forecast to increase by 200,000 b/d y-o-y in 2H19, on the back of growth in OECD Americas, driven by solid light distillate demand," said the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said in its latest Monthly Oil Market Report.
In contrast, OECD Europe is forecast to contract due to slower economic momentum, while OECD Asia Pacific will decline on lower petrochemical feedstock demand," added the report.
For H2-19, OPEC expects non-OPEC supply growth to show further upside potential, with higher production expected in the US, as well as production ramp-ups in Brazil and possibly the start-up of Norway’s Johan Sverdrup field in the North Sea, leading to a growth forecast of 2.14m b/d for 2019.
"In summary, the observed slowdown in the global economy in H1-19 will further be challenged in H2-19, mainly by mounting trade disputes, with the impact on oil demand growth remaining uncertain. While growth in non-OPEC supply continues, the extent of additional production in key regions in H2-19 will mainly depend on volumes of start- and ramp-ups," concluded the report.