Recently, the International Energy Agency (IEA) released the "Petroleum 2019" report that the global oil market is undergoing profound changes. Between 2019 and 2024, upstream oil and gas investment will gradually pick up, and the United States will gradually become the mainstay of oil supply. At the same time, the growth rate of oil demand has gradually slowed down, the demand for petrochemicals has increased, and the supply of heavy oil for ships has fallen sharply.
The IEA pointed out that in 2018, the US oil supply increased by 2.2 million barrels per day, a record. By 2024, US oil production has increased to 4 million barrels per day, accounting for 70% of global oil production growth. Due to the significant increase in oil production, the United States will become a net exporter of oil in 2021. According to the IEA, by 2024, US oil exports will reach 9 million barrels per day, surpassing Russia, second only to Saudi Arabia.
In addition to the United States, the IEA pointed out that in the next five years, Brazil, Canada, Norway and Guyana will increase oil production by 2.6 million barrels per day. In general, oil production in non-OPEC oil producing countries will increase by 6.1 million barrels per day by 2024. In contrast, by 2024, OPEC’s oil production will be reduced by 400,000 barrels per day.
The IEA also said that the sharp increase in oil production requires the oil and gas industry to further increase upstream investment. Upstream investment will continue to grow for three consecutive years. Among them, $450 billion was invested in 2017 and $475 billion in 2018. In 2019, global capital oil and gas investment will reach 497 billion US dollars, an increase of 4%.
The IEA also pointed out that the global oil demand growth is still stable, and the growth rate is slowing down. However, oil demand in developing countries is growing significantly. The IEA expects that by 2024, 44% of global oil demand growth will come from China and India, which is about 7.1 million barrels per day.
It is worth noting that with the significant increase in demand for plastics, petrochemicals will drive an increase in global oil demand, with chemical oil demand in the United States and China being greater. In the report, the IEA pointed out that by 2024, about 50 large-scale petrochemical projects will be put into production, driving oil consumption by 2.2 million barrels per day, accounting for 30% of global oil demand growth.