Due to the oversupply concerns, the international oil price rose significantly in the first quarter of this year, and continued to rise since April, once breaking through the $70 mark. Analysts believe that the positive supply and demand side is the main reason for boosting oil prices, but the future oil price trend is still facing high uncertainty.
Affected by the low crude oil output of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in March, the international oil price rose significantly on the 10th.
The tight supply is the main factor in the rebound of international oil prices this year. In December last year, OPEC reached an agreement with non-OPEC oil-producing countries to decide to reduce crude oil production by 1.2 million barrels per day from January 2019, with an initial set-up period of six months. From the beginning of this year to the present, OPEC's production reduction effect has become increasingly obvious.
OPEC’s latest monthly report released on the 10th showed that OPEC’s average daily crude oil output in March decreased by 534,000 barrels per day to 33.02 million barrels per day, the lowest level in nearly four years.
At the same time, the oil exports of Iran and Venezuela were blocked by US sanctions and the supply of international crude oil was reduced. ING said that OPEC’s active production cuts and passive reductions in Iran and Venezuela are on the rise, and supply and demand in the global oil market are returning to equilibrium.
It is reported that the United States is considering additional sanctions against Iran. One possible option is to tighten the temporary sanctions exemption for Iranian crude oil importers that will expire in May this year. This may further pressure Iranian crude oil exports.