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The "shale revolution" spillover effect is changing the global oil supply pattern


 Since 2011, US shale oil production has achieved major breakthroughs in both technical and management levels, and production continues to grow, helping the United States surpass Saudi Arabia and Russia to become the world's largest crude oil producer last year. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), total production in the seven major shale oil producing regions in the United States will increase by 84,000 barrels per day in March 2019, reaching a record 8.4 million barrels per day. During this round of low oil prices, the spillover effect of the US “shale revolution” has become increasingly prominent, leading the development of global crude oil to “reducing costs and increasing efficiency” and also demonstrating good development of shale oil and conventional oil in other regions. The role, or will profoundly change the global crude oil supply pattern in the medium and long term in the future.

Technological advancement and management optimization have resulted in a significant reduction in US shale oil production costs from 2014 to 2017. Integrated Wood Mackenzie and IHS estimates that the average cost of an average single barrel of crude oil fell from $70 to $75 in 2014 to $45 at the end of 2017, a drop of more than 40%. US shale oil producers have made good progress in technical fields such as drilling, fracturing, development optimization and reservoir testing, which has continued to increase shale oil production in each zone. For example, by using directional drilling technology and related equipment applications, the accuracy of drilling can be greatly improved, and horizontal well sections can be placed more in the target layer of the reservoir; the use of precise perforation fracturing can enable The fracture point is more precise and reduces the loss of proppant near the wellbore. In terms of management, manufacturers have implemented refined management of all aspects of shale oil development, effectively reducing management measures such as grading resource evaluation, simplifying ground facilities, reducing non-operation time, and strengthening water recycling. Shale oil development costs increase production efficiency. The significant reduction in production costs of shale oil has attracted many international oil giants to actively participate in the development of shale oil in the United States. Chevron plans to increase the production of some shale oil projects in the Permian Basin under the jurisdiction of the State of Texas and New Mexico to 600,000 barrels per day, and increase production to 900,000 barrels per day in 2023; the ExxonMobil plan was first In 2024, the shale oil production in the Permian Basin will be increased to 1 million barrels per day.
Although the exploration and development of oil and gas from conventional to unconventional is a big development trend, the experience gained by the United States in the "shale revolution" has important reference value for the development of global conventional oil. On the one hand, horizontal well drilling, hydraulic fracturing and various types of enhanced oil recovery technologies that have been continuously improved in shale oil development have been tried in the development of some of the world's most difficult-to-use oil and gas reservoirs, including mature oil fields in eastern China. On the other hand, the management optimization measures adopted by US shale oil companies in dealing with oil price risks provide an effective reference for other oil companies in the world to strengthen development project management in conventional oil and gas operations.
The rapid growth of US shale oil production will promote some resource countries to learn related technologies, introduce leading enterprises, and actively explore the development and utilization of domestic shale oil resources. Canada is the most successful country in the exploration and development of shale oil outside the United States. Canada's shale oil drilling has been active again since 2018, driven by the rebound in oil prices. International oil companies such as Shell, ConocoPhillips and Chevron are already in the country. Carry out homework. According to the National Energy Commission of Canada, its shale oil production is expected to grow rapidly after 2020, and Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba will be the main producing areas of Canadian shale oil in the future. Argentina is the first country outside North America to achieve commercial development of shale oil. The shale oil technology available in the Wakamurta shale zone of the Neuquén Basin in the south-central region of the country is about 16.2 billion barrels. It is the fourth largest shale oil resource area in the world and is similar to the Eagleford shale area in the United States. At present, Chevron, Exxon Mobil, Shell, Total and many other international oil companies are participating in the exploration and development of shale oil and gas in Argentina. In addition, Mexico has obtained shale oil discoveries in the northern border with the United States, and plans to hold the first round of land shale block tenders worldwide.
The demonstration role of the “Shale Revolution” may significantly increase shale oil production in other parts of the world. According to EIA forecasts, global shale oil production will increase to 10.36 million barrels per day in 2040, total production of shale oil in Canada and Argentina will be close to 1.5 million barrels per day, and Russia, Mexico, Colombia and Australia will contribute a total of approximately 180. Million barrels / day output.
Chinese oil companies must pay attention to the spillover effect of the US “shale revolution” and realize that the “shale revolution” will drive the overall growth of global shale oil and even conventional crude oil production, resulting in a loose supply of medium and long-term global oil market, thus curbing international oil prices. The sharp rise. At the same time, we will increase the intensity of open cooperation and learn from the technology and management experience of the US “Shale Revolution” to realize the technological breakthrough and effective development of China's continental and land-based over-phase shale oil as soon as possible. Actively explore the application of unconventional oil and gas development ideas to conventional oil and gas development activities, and accelerate the development of China's oil and gas resources through technology and management innovation.